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Why Is Kinross Gold (KGC) Down 18% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Kinross Gold (KGC - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 18% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Kinross Gold due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Kinross’ Q4 Earnings and Sales Beat on Higher Gold Prices

Kinross reported a profit of $906.5 million or 75 cents per share for fourth-quarter 2025. The figure increased from a profit of $275.6 million or 22 cents per share recorded in the year-ago quarter. 

The company reported adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share, up from the prior-year quarter’s figure of 20 cents. The bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 55 cents. 

Revenues rose roughly 43% year over year to $2,023 million in the fourth quarter. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,874.4 million. The rise is attributed to a higher average realized gold price.

Operational Performance

The company produced (attributable) 483,582 gold equivalent ounces in the reported quarter, down 3.5% year over year. Consolidated production was 489,671 ounces. The figure beat our estimate of 452,757 gold equivalent ounces. 

Average realized gold prices were $4,144 per ounce in the quarter, up 56% from the year-ago quarter’s tally. The figure beat our estimate of $4,080 per ounce. 

The production cost of sales per gold equivalent ounce was $1,297, up 18.1% from the prior-year quarter’s levels. This was above our estimate of $1,218. ASIC per gold equivalent ounce sold rose nearly 21% year over year to $1,825. This was above our estimate of $1,823. 

Margin per gold equivalent ounce sold was $2,847 in the quarter, up from the prior-year quarter’s $1,565.

Financials

Cash and cash equivalents were $1,742.3 million at the end of the quarter, up around 185% year over year. Long-term debt was $738.2 million at the end of the quarter, declining 40.3%.

Outlook

Kinross expects to produce 2 million gold equivalent ounces (+/- 5%) on an attributable basis in 2026, with a production cost of sales per gold equivalent ounces of $1,360 (+/- 5%) and AISC cost of $1,730 (+/- 5%) per ounce sold. Total attributable capital expenditures are estimated to be $1,500 million (+/- 5%). 

The annual production is estimated to be approximately 2 million attributable Au eq. oz. (+/- 5%) in 2027 and 2028. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Kinross Gold has a great Growth Score of A, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Kinross Gold has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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